AUTO OUTCOME

Outcome model v3

Automatic Signal Outcome Tracker

Scanner Performance

The system automatically checks what happened after every scanner signal. No manual trade logging is required.

This page does not claim that you personally bought or sold a signal. It measures whether the completed-sales market had enough exact-lot sales at or above the planned target to absorb the full planned exit after the signal appeared.

Signals recorded

3320

current outcome model

1h full-exit success

84%

n=3249

Median full exit

successful 1h outcomes

1h price reached

93%

at least one target-level sale

Time horizons

How quickly signals clear

15 minutes

3304 evaluated

56%

full planned exit

median 3m

30 minutes

3256 evaluated

70%

full planned exit

median 5m

1 hour

3249 evaluated

84%

full planned exit

median 7m

3 hours

3076 evaluated

96%

full planned exit

median 10m

1 hour outcome

By strategy

Strategy	Tested	Full exit	Median exit	Price reached
Same-Lot	735	93%	5m	93%
Split-Flip	1338	78%	12m	94%
Craft	331	94%	4m	98%
Decraft	328	77%	15m	97%
Merge	517	83%	4m	83%

Calibration

Opportunity Score vs outcome

Score	Tested	1h full exit	Median exit	Price reached
90–100	710	86%	7m	96%
80–89	1913	86%	7m	94%
70–79	536	79%	13m	90%
60–69	90	54%	11m	57%

Execution difficulty

By number of lots to sell

Exit size	Tested	1h full exit	Median exit	Price reached
1 lot	1256	89%	5m	89%
2 lots	354	84%	12m	91%
3–4 lots	932	85%	6m	96%
5–8 lots	300	71%	21m	96%
9–16 lots	407	73%	17m	97%

Fill-time model

Prediction check

Prediction samples

2943

Median predicted

11m

Median actual

10m

Median prediction error

Prediction error uses signals that completed a full exit within the 3-hour window. As the sample grows, this lets us calibrate the fill-time model from its own results.

Exact markets

Best observed 1h markets

Strategy	Exit market	Tested	1h full exit	Median exit
Decraft	Bone meal x64	75	100%	2m
Same-Lot	Obsidian x64	56	100%	2m
Split-Flip	Hopper x16	55	100%	2m
Split-Flip	Experience bottle x16	36	100%	3m
Split-Flip	Experience bottle x32	30	100%	7m
Same-Lot	Experience bottle x16	25	100%	2m
Same-Lot	Obsidian x8	16	100%	4m
Same-Lot	Golden apple x16	14	100%	5m
Merge	Cooked beef x2	13	100%	1m
Same-Lot	Golden apple x64	13	100%	5m
Merge	Chest x2	12	100%	1m
Merge	Hopper x2	11	100%	1m

Latest evaluated signals

Recent 1h outcomes

Outcome	Strategy	Buy	Sell plan	Lots	Target	Score	Predicted	Actual	Projected profit
FULL EXIT	Split-Flip	Ender pearl x16	Ender pearl x1	16	$989	84	12m	46m	$10,325
FULL EXIT	Split-Flip	Oak sign x8	Oak sign x1	8	$4,998	83	7m	14m	$24,984
FULL EXIT	Craft	Spruce log x64	Spruce planks x64	4	$7,999	82	6m	1m	$18,296
MISSED	Merge	Flow armor trim smithing template x1	Flow armor trim smithing template x4	1	$600,000	65	67m	>60m	$280,001
PARTIAL	Split-Flip	Dispenser x16	Dispenser x2	8	$67,400	85	38m	>60m	$390,200
FULL EXIT	Split-Flip	Ender pearl x16	Ender pearl x1	16	$989	84	12m	48m	$12,824
FULL EXIT	Split-Flip	Experience bottle x16	Experience bottle x8	2	$64,999	80	5m	2m	$28,999
FULL EXIT	Split-Flip	Hopper x16	Hopper x2	8	$9,999	82	18m	20m	$29,992
FULL EXIT	Merge	Observer x1	Observer x4	1	$19,999	83	6m	5m	$9,279
FULL EXIT	Merge	Observer x1	Observer x4	1	$19,999	84	6m	5m	$8,999
FULL EXIT	Split-Flip	Golden apple x64	Golden apple x32	2	$799,200	81	8m	20m	$298,400
FULL EXIT	Split-Flip	End crystal x64	End crystal x8	8	$194,999	75	72m	30m	$449,995
MISSED	Split-Flip	Piston x64	Piston x8	8	$30,000	77	21m	>60m	$126,000
FULL EXIT	Craft	Spruce log x64	Spruce planks x64	4	$5,499	86	5m	0m	$9,197
FULL EXIT	Merge	Observer x1	Observer x4	1	$19,999	83	6m	7m	$9,279
MISSED	Merge	Firework rocket x1	Firework rocket x2	1	$700,001	65	19m	>60m	$698,901
FULL EXIT	Same-Lot	Experience bottle x16	Experience bottle x16	1	$130,000	81	2m	0m	$29,001
FULL EXIT	Split-Flip	End crystal x64	End crystal x8	8	$195,000	75	72m	29m	$509,998
FULL EXIT	Merge	Observer x1	Observer x4	1	$19,999	83	6m	6m	$9,279
FULL EXIT	Same-Lot	Hopper x16	Hopper x16	1	$67,990	90	1m	1m	$17,990
MISSED	Same-Lot	Bucket x1	Bucket x1	1	$15,000	79	15m	>60m	$14,000
FULL EXIT	Same-Lot	End crystal x16	End crystal x16	1	$320,000	77	5m	3m	$50,001
FULL EXIT	Split-Flip	End crystal x16	End crystal x8	2	$194,999	82	20m	2m	$120,000
FULL EXIT	Split-Flip	Tnt x64	Tnt x32	2	$96,300	90	20m	4m	$67,600
FULL EXIT	Split-Flip	Cooked beef x16	Cooked beef x2	8	$9,489	85	18m	9m	$55,913
FULL EXIT	Split-Flip	Ender pearl x16	Ender pearl x1	16	$699	82	12m	56m	$8,184
PARTIAL	Split-Flip	Obsidian x64	Obsidian x8	8	$20,000	90	36m	>60m	$121,600
FULL EXIT	Split-Flip	Observer x16	Observer x4	4	$23,999	90	30m	18m	$56,096
FULL EXIT	Split-Flip	Sticky piston x2	Sticky piston x1	2	$7,898	85	8m	9m	$5,806
PARTIAL	Split-Flip	Ender pearl x12	Ender pearl x2	6	$1,998	81	85m	>60m	$10,988